The latest housing and economic reports brought a mix of signals—but overall, the news is encouraging for buyers and homeowners in Seattle, Redmond, and Woodinville. While annual home price growth slowed a bit in September, pending home sales surged in October to their strongest level of the year, suggesting more closings could be coming soon.
At the same time, the government released previously delayed data on retail sales and wholesale inflation, giving a clearer picture of where the broader economy is headed.
Here are the key highlights and what they could mean for the local real estate market.
The Case-Shiller Home Price Index, one of the most closely watched home value measures, showed a slight decline before seasonal adjustments in September. Once adjusted, it reflected a small monthly increase. On an annual basis, home prices remain up 1.3% from last year, though that’s a touch slower than August’s 1.4%.
Meanwhile, the FHFA Index, which focuses on homes financed with conventional mortgages (and excludes cash and jumbo purchases), showed monthly prices were flat, but still up 1.7% year-over-year.
Bottom line: Prices in the U.S. are still rising compared to last year, but appreciation has cooled. For buyers in Seattle, Redmond, and Woodinville, that’s not a bad thing—slower growth can ease competition, while still allowing homeowners to build equity steadily.
And if mortgage rates continue easing, demand could pick up again, which may put upward pressure on prices heading into the new year.
Pending Home Sales—an important indicator because it tracks signed contracts before closings—rose 1.9% from September to October. Not only did it beat expectations, it was also the strongest pace of the year, according to the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR). Year-over-year, contract signings were down only 0.4%, showing demand is holding relatively steady.
Bottom line: Pending Home Sales typically lead closings by 1–2 months, so October’s jump suggests we may see higher sales volume in November and December.
That’s important for Seattle, where buyers tend to jump when rates improve and inventory grows. In Redmond, where strong job sectors support demand, improved mortgage conditions could bring more buyers back quickly. And in Woodinville, where buyers often prioritize space and lifestyle, rising pending sales could signal a more competitive winter market than usual.
Initial jobless claims fell slightly to 216,000, their lowest level in about two months. That’s a good headline number. But the deeper story is that continuing claims—people still collecting unemployment benefits—rose to 1.96 million, one of the highest levels in four years.
Continuing claims have stayed above 1.9 million since mid-May, which suggests job seekers are taking longer to find new positions.
Bottom line: While layoffs aren’t skyrocketing, hiring appears to be cooling. That matters because labor market trends play a major role in Fed policy—and Fed policy influences mortgage rate direction over time.
The shutdown delayed September retail sales data, but we finally got it. Retail sales rose only 0.2%, weaker than expected and much smaller than August’s 0.6% gain.
Even more telling: the “control group” category (a key measure that impacts GDP calculations) declined 0.1%, marking its first drop in five months.
Bottom line: Consumers may be slowing their spending heading into the fourth quarter. The delayed October and November reports will be important to confirm whether this was just a one-month pause or the start of a trend.
For Seattle-area housing markets, consumer spending and confidence can influence buyer activity—especially for first-time buyers and move-up buyers who are watching monthly budget changes closely.
The government also released delayed Producer Price Index (PPI) data for September. Wholesale prices increased 0.3% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year, largely due to a nearly 12% jump in gasoline prices.
Core PPI (excluding food and energy) rose only 0.1% on the month and 2.6% annually, slightly below forecasts.
Bottom line: Wholesale inflation feeds into the Fed’s preferred inflation measure (PCE). While there were some areas of price increases, the overall data is not expected to cause a major jump in the upcoming PCE reading.
That’s good news for borrowers in Seattle, Redmond, and Woodinville, because lower inflation pressure gives the Fed more flexibility to keep easing policy—supporting better borrowing conditions over time.
Here’s the simple takeaway:
✅ Home prices are still up year-over-year, but growth has slowed
✅ Pending home sales jumped in October, signaling stronger closings ahead
✅ The job market is cooling, which may support additional Fed easing
✅ Consumer spending softened, suggesting more cautious economic momentum
✅ Wholesale inflation rose due to gas, but core inflation stayed tame
If mortgage rates continue trending lower and inventory keeps improving, the spring 2026 market could heat up quickly—especially in desirable areas like Redmond and Woodinville and neighborhoods around Seattle where demand rebounds fast when affordability improves.
At Home Right Lending, we’re a mortgage brokerage—not a bank—so we work with multiple lenders to find the best loan option for your situation. Whether you’re buying in Seattle, upgrading in Redmond, or looking for more space in Woodinville, our team helps you navigate rates, loan programs, and timelines with clear guidance and no runaround.
If you want to get pre-approved or explore refinance options, contact us today. We’ll help you make a plan that fits your goals and puts you in a strong position as the market shifts.