The latest round of economic data paints a familiar picture for homebuyers and homeowners in Everett, Marysville, and Lynnwood. Inflation came in right where economists expected, while housing contract activity cooled toward the end of the year—largely due to winter weather, holiday distractions, and tight inventory.
Here’s a breakdown of what matters most and how it could affect the local housing and mortgage market.
The government finally released the delayed Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report for October and November. Both headline and core inflation rose 0.2% in each month, leaving the annual inflation rate at 2.8%.
Core PCE—which excludes food and energy and is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge—also remained in line with expectations.
What this means locally:
For buyers and homeowners in Everett, Marysville, and Lynnwood, steady inflation is good news. It suggests price pressures aren’t accelerating again, which helps support more stable borrowing conditions.
The Federal Reserve continues to walk a careful line. Inflation hasn’t fully returned to its 2% target, but the job market is cooling, which has already prompted the Fed to cut rates three times last fall. While Fed policy doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, it strongly influences overall lending conditions.
Encouragingly, recent monthly inflation readings were relatively mild. As higher inflation numbers from early 2025 drop out of the annual calculation, inflation could continue trending lower—making future rate relief more achievable.
Pending Home Sales dropped 9.3% from November to December, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Compared to last year, signed contracts were down 3%.
Before sounding alarms, context matters.
NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun pointed out that December is often tricky to interpret. Between holidays, winter storms, and people stepping away from house hunting, contract activity tends to slow—even when demand hasn’t disappeared.
Inventory also played a role. With just 1.18 million homes on the market, supply fell to one of the lowest levels of 2025. Fewer listings mean fewer opportunities for buyers to sign contracts, especially in competitive areas like Lynnwood and Everett.
Bottom line:
This looks more like a seasonal pause than a major shift. As buyers return in late winter and early spring, activity could rebound—especially if rates cooperate.
After delays caused by the government shutdown, the final estimate for Q3 2025 GDP came in at a strong 4.4% annualized growth rate—the fastest pace since 2023.
That’s a notable jump from:
3.8% growth in Q2
A 0.6% contraction in Q1
For the first nine months of the year, the economy averaged 2.5% growth.
Consumer spending led the way, helped by a rush of electric vehicle purchases ahead of expiring tax credits. Business investment, exports, and government spending also contributed, while a drop in imports gave GDP an extra boost.
Why this matters locally:
A growing economy supports jobs, wages, and long-term housing demand in communities like Marysville, where affordability draws families, and Everett, where economic diversity helps stabilize demand.
Initial jobless claims edged up slightly to 200,000, still very low by historical standards. Continuing claims fell to 1.849 million, though they remain elevated enough to suggest that unemployed workers are taking longer to find new jobs.
One reason: the growing role of the gig economy. Many displaced workers are choosing contract or app-based work rather than filing for unemployment benefits, which often don’t cover rising housing and living costs.
Bottom line:
Layoffs remain limited, but hiring isn’t accelerating. This softer labor environment keeps pressure on the Fed to remain cautious—and potentially supportive—when it comes to rate policy.
This week’s spotlight is firmly on the Federal Reserve, which begins its two-day policy meeting Tuesday. The rate decision and press conference arrive Wednesday afternoon.
Other key reports ahead:
Home price data from Case-Shiller and the FHFA (Tuesday)
Jobless claims (Thursday)
Producer Price Index (PPI) for December (Friday)
Each of these will help shape expectations around inflation, housing demand, and mortgage rate direction.
Mortgage bonds ended last week testing support at their 25-day moving average. Holding above that level could allow rates to improve further. If not, additional support sits near the 50-day average.
Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield closed below its 200-day moving average—often a positive technical signal. If yields remain below that level, there may be room for further improvement before hitting the next support zone.
Here’s the local takeaway:
Inflation is steady and no longer accelerating
Housing contract activity slowed due to seasonal factors and low inventory
Economic growth remains solid
The labor market is cooling, not collapsing
Mortgage conditions could gradually improve if trends continue
If you’re planning to buy or refinance in Everett, Marysville, or Lynnwood, this is a smart time to prepare. Inventory is tight, but demand tends to rise quickly when rates improve—and being ready can make all the difference.
At Home Right Lending, we’re a mortgage brokerage—not a bank. That means we work with multiple lenders to find the right loan solution for your situation, whether you’re a first-time buyer, a self-employed borrower, or refinancing to improve cash flow.
If you’re house-hunting or refinancing in Everett, Marysville, or Lynnwood, reach out today. We’ll help you understand your options and build a plan that fits your goals—before the next wave of buyers jumps back in.